Sports Betting Tips - If Bets and Reverse Teasers
"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with v9bet , the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."