Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help over time. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In thiên đường trò chơi , every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.