Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. This is due to most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should casinomocbai placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.