Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which might be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In casino Jun88 , I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.