Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, nhà cái Dabet knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. It is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.