How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create  j88 . We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.

At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The problem for the bookmaker was that both halves of every parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.

You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an impression privately or the full total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win if you have no opinion.

There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Therefore, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.

Assuming you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.