How exactly to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously  Trang chủ Mig8  of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.

Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an impression on the side or the total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win assuming you have no opinion.

There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.

In case you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because more and more are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.